What the federal government is doing: plans, budgets and gaps

Bajío Ventures · October 2026 · From commitment to project, 4 of 6

The three previous posts reviewed the commitment: the MDGs, the SDGs and the agreements signed. This post reviews federal execution in the first two years of the administration. The test is simple: for each topic, which instrument exists, which number supports it and what is missing.

In this series: 1. The MDGs · 2. The SDGs four years from 2030 · 3. What Mexico signed · 4. What the federal government is doing (this post) · 5. The Bajío states · 6. What Bajío Ventures can do

The summary

Topic	Instrument	Figure	Gap
Planning	National Development Plan 2025–2030	Four axes; the fourth is sustainable development	One or two indicators per objective
Industry	Plan México	Investment of 25% of GDP in 2026 and 28% in 2030	Private investment falling in 2026
Electricity	Electricity Sector Law, PLADESE	28,004 new MW between 2025 and 2030	Four different clean energy targets; grid lagging behind
Climate	NDC 3.0	364–404 MtCO₂e in 2035	No emissions market in operation
Budget	Annex 16 (climate change)	MXN 160,121 million proposed for 2027	24.7% less than in 2026
Finance	Sovereign sustainable bonds	USD 34.5 billion since 2020	—
Poverty	Social programmes and minimum wage	29.6% in 2024, against 41.9% in 2018	Access to health care: 34.2% lack it
Water	General Water Law	In force since December 2025	Key works in dispute
Monitoring	National Council for the 2030 Agenda	Executive secretariat in the Ministry of Economy	No national targets set

Planning: the PND and Plan México

The National Development Plan (PND) 2025–2030 was published on 15 April 2025. It has four general axes — governance, development with wellbeing, moral economy and work, and sustainable development — and three cross-cutting axes. According to the analysis by BBVA Research, the environmental axis is aligned with SDGs 6, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15. For 2030 it sets, among other targets, 533 million net tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, 30% of the territory and of the sea under protection, and 200,000 hectares of technified irrigation. The same analysis identifies the weakness: few indicators per objective and no fiscal space identified.

Plan México, presented on 13 January 2025, is the industrial policy. Its targets include raising investment to 28% of GDP in 2030, 50% national content in strategic sectors and cutting the time to approve a project from 2.6 years to one. Of the 15 Economic Development Hubs for Wellbeing announced in June 2025, one is in the Bajío: Celaya, declared the “Puerta Logística del Bajío” (Bajío Logistics Gateway) on 21 July 2025, on 52 hectares. Another is in Morelia.

The result does not yet match the target. México, ¿cómo vamos? reported that private investment in the first quarter of 2026 was the lowest as a share of GDP since 2020.

Electricity: a lot of planning, four targets

The legal framework is new. The Electricity Sector Law and the Planning and Energy Transition Law entered into force in March 2025. The State keeps at least 54% of the energy injected into the grid, and the limit for generation without a permit rises to 0.7 MW. Planning is binding: we explain it in Binding planning.

The sector development plan (PLADESE), published in October 2025, provides for 28,004 additional MW between 2025 and 2030: 17,009 MW from the State and 10,995 MW private. It also lists 223 transmission projects worth MXN 191,750 million.

The problem is the target. A resolution published by the Ministry of Energy (SENER) in 2026 cites four official figures for 2030:

Document	Target for 2030
National Development Plan	21.5% of renewable and alternative sources in national energy production
Energy Sector Programme	38% of electricity generation from clean energy
PLADESE	35%, “with the possibility of reaching” 38%
Plan México	Up to 45%

The first measures all energy, not only electricity. The other three refer to clean energy and do not agree. NDC 3.0 adds a fifth: 38.5%.

The starting point is not a single figure either. The sector programme takes 23.19% in 2023. Ember calculates 26% low-carbon generation in 2025. The development programme of the CFE, the state electricity utility, acknowledges 21%, according to Expansión. With any of the three, the gap is between 12 and 17 points in four years.

Climate: absolute target, instruments pending

NDC 3.0 sets between 364 and 404 million net tonnes for 2035. The instruments to get there are incomplete:

• Emissions trading. The operational phase of the system has been postponed at least four times. In September 2026, SEMARNAT, the environment ministry, placed it at the start of 2027, with about 300 installations of more than 100,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year and no defined cap.
• Carbon taxes. There is the federal tax on fuels and eleven state taxes. Three of the eleven are in the Bajío.
• Methane. Pemex has the target of reducing its methane 30% by 2030. Its greenhouse gas emissions rose 20.7% between the second quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025.

Budget: where the money is

The draft budget for 2027 was submitted in September 2026.

MXN million	2026	2027 draft
CONAGUA (national water commission)	37,689	39,797
SEMARNAT	2,250	3,512
CONAFOR (national forestry commission)	2,589	2,781
CONANP (protected areas commission)	1,502	1,591
Branch 16 (Ramo 16), environment (total)	—	49,508
Annex 16, climate change	212,570	160,121

The environment branch grows 8.65% and about 80% is water. The cross-cutting climate change annex falls 24.7% in nominal terms, and one third of what remains is trains. According to Excélsior, the Pemex budget for 2027 equals 4.2 times that annex. Greenpeace calculates the fall in the annex at 27.6% in real terms.

Sustainable finance: what works best

This is the area with the most continuity. The Ministry of Finance (SHCP) reports 25 sovereign sustainable issues in four currencies since 2020, for USD 34.5 billion as of February 2026. In January 2026 it placed EUR 4.75 billion in three tranches. The development banks add MXN 241 billion in thematic bonds.

The reporting rule has now reached companies. The CNBV, the banking and securities regulator, requires international sustainability standards from listed issuers from financial year 2025. The Mexican NIS standards ask private companies for 30 indicators. We covered the effect on the supply chain in the previous post.

Poverty and health: the best figure and the worst

The August 2025 measurement by INEGI, the national statistics institute, is the strongest result of the period. Multidimensional poverty went from 41.9% in 2018 to 29.6% in 2024, from 51.9 to 38.5 million people. The general minimum wage went from MXN 88.36 per day in 2018 to MXN 315.04 in 2026.

The same measurement has the weakest figure: lack of access to health services went from 16.2% in 2018 to 34.2% in 2024, that is, 44.5 million people.

Water and permits

The General Water Law was published on 11 December 2025. It limits the transfer of concessions between private parties: with some exceptions, the volumes return to CONAGUA for reallocation. For the Bajío, where groundwater defines what can be grown and what can be manufactured, it is the most important regulatory change of the year. The most visible project, the Solís–León aqueduct, is still in dispute; we review it in the post on the states.

On permits, 2026 brought three changes: the rules for the social impact statement in the energy sector (February), the simplification resolution for the environmental impact procedure (April) and the bill for a new general environmental law, presented in August; the environment committee of the Chamber of Deputies agreed in September to open hearings. The details are in Three environmental and social changes for energy projects.

The gaps

The grid. The federal plan to expand the electricity system estimates an average requirement of MXN 104,100 million per year towards 2030. The investment allocated to the CFE in 2026 was MXN 61,100 million, according to IMCO, the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. Of the transmission projects, 73% are at early stages.

Gas. Mexico imports from the United States about 70% of the gas it consumes and generates more than 60% of its electricity with gas, according to Fitch. The electricity plan adds combined-cycle plants.

Public investment. Government physical investment fell 7.9% in real terms in the first half of 2026; the fall is concentrated in Pemex.

Monitoring. The Federal Audit Office (ASF) found that there are no national thresholds for the SDGs. The plan says where to go. Nobody has set the number at which a goal counts as met.

The takeaway

1. The federal government plans more than it budgets. The 2030 and 2035 targets are written. The public money to reach them is not in the 2027 budget. The difference has to come from private investment, development banks and international finance.

2. There is an opening for private capital and it has a defined shape. The plan has 10,995 private MW, a threshold of 0.7 MW without a permit and mixed schemes with the CFE. We describe them in Energy investment schemes.

3. With four targets, the practical reference is 38%. It is the figure in the sector programme and the PLADESE ceiling; the NDC puts it at 38.5%. A regional project can measure itself against it without waiting for the documents to align.

This note is for information only and is not legal or investment advice.

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Sources: BBVA Research — PND and environmental sustainability, May 2025 · The Logistics World — Plan México targets · Diario de Yucatán — 15 wellbeing hubs, 26 Jun 2025 · AMCP — declaration of the Celaya hub, DOF 21 Jul 2025 · México, ¿cómo vamos? — Plan México and USMCA, Jun 2026 · Garrigues — new Electricity Sector Law · IMCO — the electricity sector under the new regulatory landscape · SENER — resolution on clean energy certificates (SIDOF) · Ember — Mexico · Expansión — clean energy target, 7 Sep 2026 · Carbon Pulse — emissions trading system, 4 Sep 2026 · OPIS — state carbon taxes, 2026 · EDF — methane in Mexico after COP30, Dec 2025 · Gaceta Parlamentaria, 9 Sep 2026 · Expansión — Pemex emissions, Aug 2025 · Excélsior — 2027 environmental budget · Excélsior — funds for climate change · Greenpeace Mexico — PPEF 2027 · SHCP — Marco Soberano Vinculado 2026 · Expansión — sustainable issue in euros, 12 Jan 2026 · INEGI — multidimensional poverty 2024 · El Imparcial — minimum wage 2026 · Greenberg Traurig — General Water Law, Dec 2025 · Garrigues — social impact statement, Feb 2026 · Pérez-Llorca — environmental impact simplification, Apr 2026 · Expansión — new environmental law, 26 Aug 2026 · Revista Flow — hearings on the new environmental law, Sep 2026 · Bloomberg Línea — gas dependence, Fitch · IMCO — Hacienda en la Mira, Q2 2026 · ASF — audit 2024-2201

Bajío Ventures — a Mexican energy-infrastructure investment group based in Guanajuato: capital, a data platform on the region’s industrial base, and a German industrial channel, with its own advisory presence in Berlin.