Six axes and one condition: an energy agenda for the Bajío

Bajío Ventures · October 2026

The Bajío debates its energy in pieces: one day the missing substation, the next the solar park, the next the power bill. This note proposes looking at the whole. It has six lines of work and one condition that runs through all of them. It is a proposal from Bajío Invest to give structure to the conversation among governments, industry, agriculture and investors in the region. Each axis comes with its starting point, in public figures, and what we propose to measure.

Axis	Starting point	What we propose
1. Energy security	Mexico imports about three quarters of its gas and stores 2.5 days	Measure security in hours of local backup, not only in installed MW
2. Renewable mix	23.4% clean generation nationally (2024); 428 MW of clean capacity in Guanajuato	40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040
3. Agrivoltaics	19 of Guanajuato’s 20 aquifers are overdrawn; no specific regulation	Measured pilots on wells and greenhouses; saved water comes first
4. Bioenergy and hydrogen	Bioenergy produces 0.15% of the country’s electricity; the two green hydrogen plants in operation are in the Bajío	Bioenergy for waste and heat; hydrogen for industrial niches
5. Distributed generation	Guanajuato ranks fourth nationally with 358 MW	Double it by 2030, with batteries and collective schemes
6. Energy efficiency	Energy intensity fell 0.47% in 2024; the federal target is 2.9% a year	Energy management beyond the obligated sites; the kWh not consumed comes first
Condition: energy justice	The poorest household spends 3.3% of its income on electricity; the richest, 0.8%	Every project states who pays, who benefits and who decides

1. Energy security: backup is measured in hours

On paper, Guanajuato has electricity to spare. The state reports 3,392 MW installed against peak demand of about 2,500 MW, and in 2024 it generated 12,564 GWh against 11,870 GWh consumed. But only 428 MW of that capacity is clean. The rest is thermal generation, mostly natural gas.

That is where the risk sits. Combined-cycle plants produced 60% of Mexico’s electricity in 2024. The United States sent 6.4 billion cubic feet a day by pipeline, against national consumption of 8.6: about three quarters. Of that flow, 91% leaves from West and South Texas. Mexico holds 2.5 days of gas; CENAGAS has set itself a target of ten. In February 2021, the Texas freeze took 5,323 MW offline and left 4.7 million CFE customers without power.

Strategic gas storage is a federal task. What the region does decide is how much critical load can keep running when gas or the grid fails.

What we propose: every industrial park, hospital and water utility should know two numbers: what share of its critical load it covers with its own generation and storage, and for how many hours. And the region should diversify its firm sources —batteries for the peak, geothermal, biogas— rather than only adding more gas.

2. Renewable mix: from 40 to 60%

Mexico generated 23.4% of its electricity from clean sources in 2024. The federal plan (PLADESE) projects 38.5% in 2030 and 48.2% in 2039; PROSENER gives a range of 38 to 45% for 2030, and in July 2026 the Energy Ministry (SENER) spoke of bringing the 50% target forward to 2039–2040.

We propose a band for the Bajío: 40% as the floor in 2030 and 60% as the horizon in 2040, measured on the electricity the region consumes —what arrives over the grid plus what is generated on site. The floor is the federal target in round numbers. The horizon sits ten points above what the country has set for itself.

The region starts from below. Guanajuato’s 428 MW of clean capacity is about 13% of its installed capacity; nationally, 36.9% of capacity is clean. The state’s pipeline of 12 projects adds 1,692.5 MW by 2028 and includes solar in Manuel Doblado and geothermal in Celaya, but also 498 MW from the second stage of the Salamanca combined-cycle plant.

Is the stretch from 40 to 60 achievable? Spain went from 37.5% renewable generation in 2019 to 56.8% in 2024: five years. Germany went from 42% in 2019 to 55.1% in 2025 and has not yet reached 60. It can be done, but it does not happen on its own: the grid and storage must grow at the same pace as the panels.

What we propose: publish every year the renewable share of consumption by state, and count on-site generation in it. What is not measured by region cannot be demanded by region.

3. Agrivoltaics: energy that does not compete with farming

In Guanajuato, 19 of the 20 aquifers are overdrawn. Agriculture uses more than 85% of the available water, about 250,000 hectares are irrigated with groundwater, and an estimated 80% of wells run at efficiencies below 50%. Agricultural pumping consumes 5.2% of the country’s electricity.

Agrivoltaics puts panels above the crop, at the height and spacing the crop needs. In the University of Arizona trial (Nature Sustainability, 2019), in an arid climate, jalapeño gave similar yields with 65% less transpirational water loss, the soil held about 15% more moisture and tomato production doubled under the panels. At Heggelbach, Germany, Fraunhofer ISE measured a land-use efficiency of 160% in 2017 and 186% for potatoes in 2018, a hot, dry summer.

Mexico is at the start. The country’s first agrivoltaic plot opened in October 2023 at a UNAM centre in Topilejo, with 72 panels. The Red Agrovoltaica Mexicana brings together more than 70 organisations, and the country still has no regulation that recognises agrivoltaics as a category of its own.

What we propose: start where there is already a well and a load: pumping and greenhouses —Guanajuato has 3,897 hectares of protected agriculture— with systems below 0.7 MW. And apply the rule we set out for the Laja River basin: no project is approved unless it shows, with metering, that the land draws less water than before.

4. Bioenergy and hydrogen: niches, not promises

Bioenergy. It contributes little to the power mix: 387 MW of the country’s 90,543 MW and 0.15% of generation in 2024. Its value in the Bajío is different. Guanajuato has 1.35 million pigs (2022 Agricultural Census) and is the country’s leading barley producer. A 2015 study estimated that the state’s pig manure could generate 58 GWh a year: half a percentage point of its electricity consumption. That is small as electricity and large as a solution to a waste stream, to methane emissions and to agricultural burning.

There are market signals. León’s landfill has generated 2.8 MW for street lighting since 2019. In February 2026 SENER granted a plant in Lagos de Moreno, Jalisco, the first federal authorisation to sell biomethane: up to 12,456 m³ a day from manure and crop residue. The official biomethane standard is being drafted.

Hydrogen. H2México counts 31 projects worth USD 22,370.5 million and 196,707 tonnes a year. Only two plants operate, and both are in the Bajío: Querétaro and San Luis Potosí. The Querétaro plant, by Cryoinfra with Gerresheimer, a maker of pharmaceutical packaging, opened in October 2025 with an investment of 100 million pesos.

Cost explains the scale. According to the strategy H2México published in 2024, green hydrogen costs between 4.5 and 6.5 dollars per kilo; grey hydrogen, from natural gas, between 0.75 and 2.25. In 2020, more than 98% of the country’s hydrogen was produced and consumed inside Pemex.

What we propose: bioenergy to treat waste and replace gas in process heat, with long-term biomass supply contracts. Hydrogen only where it is already a feedstock or where the customer pays the premium —glass, metal treatment, refining— and not for power generation this decade.

5. Distributed generation: the axis that already works

Mexico closed 2025 with 5,189.71 MW of distributed generation across 600,651 applications. Guanajuato ranks fourth nationally, with 358.46 MW in 32,538 applications. Its average system is 11 kW, against 8.64 kW nationally: in Guanajuato the industrial roof weighs more.

The federal plan foresees an additional 4,788 MW between 2025 and 2030. The Electricity Sector Law raised the no-permit threshold to 0.7 MW. What is missing is the second half of the rules: in September 2026 the update of the distributed generation provisions was still pending, and the sector expects it to bring collective schemes and storage.

What we propose: double the region’s distributed capacity by 2030 —about 720 MW in Guanajuato— and have industrial parks prepare for the collective scheme: one system, several users, one battery that shaves everyone’s peak.

6. Energy efficiency: the cheapest kWh

PROSENER sets a reduction in energy intensity of 2.9% every year to 2036. In 2024 it fell 0.47%. The world is not doing well either: the International Energy Agency reports 1% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Industry consumes 60.6% of the country’s electricity. The rules CONUEE published on 30 September 2026 require facilities that consume more than 45 GWh a year, or more than 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent in fuels, to register every year and to run an energy management system based on ISO 50001 that covers at least 80% of their consumption. Verification starts in June 2027 and the compliance deadline is January 2028.

The tariff already pays for efficiency. In CFE’s Bajío division, in October 2026, a kWh at peak hours under the GDMTH tariff costs 2.06 pesos against 1.02 at base hours, and each kW of capacity is charged at 377.17 pesos a month.

What we propose: take energy management to the mid-sized plant, the one that sits below the threshold. And set an order: first reduce, then shift the peak, and generate last.

The condition: energy justice

The Energy Planning and Transition Law (2025) defines energy justice as the actions to reduce energy poverty and inequalities in the use of energy, and to widen participation, mainly of Indigenous peoples, in the local supply chains of projects. PROSENER lists it as an objective.

In the Bajío, coverage is not the problem: 99.3% of homes in Guanajuato had electricity in the 2020 Census. The problem is cost and distribution. The country’s poorest decile spends 3.3% of its income on the power bill and the richest 0.8%, with a subsidy of 87,789 million pesos in 2026. The reference study on energy poverty (García Ochoa and Graizbord, with 2012 data) found that 36.7% of households lived in it, and that the largest deprivation was thermal comfort. And we did not find in the law a specific legal form for community or cooperative energy.

That is why justice is not a seventh axis: it is the test the other six must pass. An agrivoltaic project that only benefits the owner of the largest well, or a solar-roof programme that only reaches those who can pay for the investment, meets the MW target and fails the agenda. We develop this in A just energy transition.

What we propose: every project in the agenda should answer three questions in writing —who pays, who benefits, who decides— and the region should track one indicator: energy spending as a share of income for the lowest-income households.

The takeaway

1. Order matters. Efficiency and distributed generation come first: they are fast, need no new grid and can start today. The mix and local backup take a decade. Hydrogen waits for the cost to fall.

2. In the Bajío, water rules. Agrivoltaics and bioenergy are judged by the water they save and the waste they treat, not by the MW they add.

3. The numbers are already public; what is missing is putting them together. Almost every indicator in this note exists in some federal or state report. What the region lacks is a dashboard that sets them side by side, every year. That is the first deliverable of an agenda.

This is an open proposal. If you work on any of these axes —from a municipality, a plant, an irrigation district or a fund— we would like to hear your reading.

This note is for information only and does not constitute legal or investment advice.

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Sources: SENER — PLADESE 2025-2039 (DOF, 17 Oct 2025) · SENER — PROSENER 2025-2030 (DOF, 22 Dec 2025) · La Jornada — PLADESE: 38.5% in 2030 and 48.2% in 2039 · La Jornada — SENER: 50% towards 2039–2040, Jul 2026 · EIA — pipeline gas exports to Mexico · Bloomberg Línea — gas storage, Apr 2026 · Energy Magazine — CENAGAS, 10-day target · El Financiero — February 2021 blackout · Government of Guanajuato — 3,392 MW and 12 projects, Jun 2026 · Government of Guanajuato — 428 MW clean, Jan 2026 · Government of Guanajuato — generation and consumption 2024 · REE — renewables in Spain, 2024 · REE — renewables in Spain, 2019 · UBA — renewables in Germany, 2025 · UBA — renewables in Germany, 2019 · Government of Guanajuato — irrigation modernisation evaluation, 2020 · University of Arizona — agrivoltaics, 2019 · Fraunhofer ISE — agrivoltaics guideline · Gaceta UNAM — Mexico’s first agrivoltaic plot · Vértigo Político — Red Agrovoltaica Mexicana, Sep 2025 · INEGI — 2022 Agricultural Census, Guanajuato · TV4 — Guanajuato, leading barley producer · Nova Scientia — pig-manure biogas in Guanajuato, 2015 · Heraldo León — landfill biogas, 2019 · Reverso — first biomethane permit, Feb 2026 · Bioenergy Insight — biomethane standard, Jun 2026 · pv magazine México — 31 hydrogen projects, Sep 2026 · Cluster Industrial — green hydrogen plant in Querétaro · H2México / ERM — hydrogen costs, Oct 2024 · GIZ / HINICIO — hydrogen demand in Mexico · pv magazine México — distributed generation 2025 (CNE) · Energía a Debate — pending distributed generation rules, Sep 2026 · IEA — Energy Efficiency 2025 · Energía a Debate — CONUEE register of high-consumption users · Energy21 — ISO 50001 deadlines · Batu Energy — GDMTH tariff, Bajío division · Energy Planning and Transition Law (LPTE) · INEGI — 2020 Census, Guanajuato · México Evalúa — Luz a medias · Energy Magazine — 2026 electricity subsidy · García Ochoa and Graizbord — energy poverty in Mexico, 2016

Bajío Ventures — a Mexican energy-infrastructure investment group based in Guanajuato: capital, a data platform on the region’s industrial base, and a German industrial channel, with its own advisory presence in Berlin.